![]() ![]() This would also increase the level of perceived risk due to their unfamiliarity with the area. To travel further beyond their awareness space to commit an offence would mean increased time and effort for the offender. This leads to patterns in which individuals commit crime in areas known to them. Offences will occur when this space overlaps with an opportunity for criminal activity. ![]() Over time, their increased knowledge and familiarity with these areas means they become part of an individual’s awareness space. They theorised that as an individual navigates their city or town on their journeys to and from their daily activity nodes (including places such as their home, places of work and/or education, and leisure and recreation venues) they will become more familiar with certain areas. This has important practical implications for the policing of political violence in Northern Ireland generally and for shaping specific targeted interventions.īrantingham and Brantingham expanded on the rational choice and routine activities theories with crime pattern theory to understand crime events with a spatio-temporal approach. Streets that are more connected and more likely to be traversed will experience more incidents than those that are not. The results indicate that along with other factors, the street network plays a role in shaping terrorist target selection. ![]() At the small-area level, for every 10% change in the number of Catholic residents, the number of incidents is expected to be 4.45 times as many. Police stations (IRR: 22.05), protestant churches (IRR: 6.19) and commercial premises (IRR: 1.44) on each street segment were also all found to significantly increase the expected number of attacks. For every 10% change in the betweenness value of a street segment, the segment is expected to experience 1.32 times as many incidents. Street- and area-level characteristics simultaneously influence where violent incidents occur. Specifically, we employ an observation-level random-effects (OLRE) Poisson regression and use variables at the street and area levels. This paper uses graph theoretical measures to analyse the relationship between street network usage, as well as other street- and area-level factors, and dissident Republican violence in Belfast. ![]()
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